The previous post left the topic off with the statement that Putin is a Russian imperialist with 19th-century values and priorities and a US-sized chip on the shoulder. He cares only about Russia's coercive power over other countries - which he equates with greatness - and he thinks that everyone else does the same. He also believes that the West is out to destroy or at least subdue Russia. These are not mere speculations, Putin himself expressed them openly many times.
But more than that, his obsession with West's bad intentions is personal. Putin is convinced that the color revolutions in post-Soviet republics (2003, Georgia; 2004, Ukraine; 2005, Azerbaijan; 2006, Belarus) were all staged by the CIA, and he allegedly blames Hillary Clinton personally responsible for the Ukrainian one. He believes America wants a regime change in Russia itself (he just made that a self-fulfilling prophecy two weeks ago) and for him personally, Moammar Gadhafi's fate.
Gadhafi's grisly end is something that reportedly rattled Putin because he interpreted it as a cautionary tale. The Lybian dictator accepted the West's terms and gave up financing terrorism and developing weapons of mass destruction in exchange for being left alone. And then, they killed him. The moral of the story is that the more concessions one makes to the US the closer he gets to being murdered. If he believes this, that would explain why he has chosen to depend on China instead of integrating with the West, even if he is aware of the strategic dangers of China's friendship.
Based on how things look now, with the Ukrainian invasion, Putin took a gamble and lost big time. He didn't expect the reactions from either the West or the Ukrainians. He destroyed Russia's economic prospects for decades. He ensured that the EU will now do everything to rid itself of its dependency on Russian gas. He managed to revive NATO - which will likely expand even closer to Russia now - and strengthen the EU - the exact opposites he wanted to achieve.
His imperialistic drive might have made him attack Ukraine but his paranoia will dictate his actions from here.
What makes Putin extremely dangerous is that he is very different from past Soviet leaders. He is not just the first servant of a universal ideology. Khrushchev or Brezhnev were simple figureheads of the Communist Party. Chernenko's and Andropov's names barely ring a bell to anyone anymore. Even Stalin presented himself as the face of the Party and, ensuing some political murders, was duly replaced after his death. But Putin is the regime.
The war was his decision and his alone, and he will bear the sole responsibility for the economic collapse that at the moment looks like the most probable future for Russia. An additional military defeat would mean losing face and shattering the image that he has built up for domestic use in two decades, as the infallible hypermasculine leader. And losing the war could very well mean losing his life, too. Even before the attack on Ukraine, Putin had been long past the point when peaceful retirement was an option for him. If the opposition ever overthrows the government, he will spend the rest of his years in prison. If one of his enemies gets to the helms, he will be probably killed.
Besides this all, this is the guy who has flooded the internet with his half-naked muscleman photos. There are videos of him taking a scuba-dive and, lo and behold, emerging with two ancient Greek urns. Or of him shooting a snow leopard. Or scoring eight goals against professional hockey players. When he started showing age, he underwent cosmetic surgery (which he denies), which made his face almost unrecognizable. He sits at the end of a ridiculously long table when he meets foreign leaders, reportedly lived in isolation in the last two years, and publicly humiliated his own chief of intelligence on national television just before launching the war. What does this all tell about his mental state?
In short, Putin is a man who ordered the killings of journalists, political opponents, schoolchildren (Beslan school siege), and tens of thousands of civilians (during the Chechen wars), perhaps even Russian civilians to create a pretext for the Chechen war. He is incredibly vain and he has cornered himself into a position, from where for him personally, victory is likely a question of life and death. Being rational from there is not reassuring for the rest of the world.
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