US election 2024 prediction

Okay, let's get it out of my system. What's going to happen on November 5 and shortly after?

I'm in a state of cognitive dissonance simultaneously holding three different mental models in my head.

The Rational Ignorant

When sliding into the first one, I'm sure anyone who claims to know who will win the 2024 presidential election is full of it. American politics is effectively a two-party system with calcified electorates, where the elections are almost always decided by very small margins. Any of the major parties could put forward a German Shepherd and have a non-negligible chance of winning (the Republicans are so sure of this that they test their luck and put forward a Putin-loving convicted rapist and insurrectionist). At the last election, each of the seven swing states was won or lost by mere tens of thousands of votes. Biden carried Arizona with 49.4% of the votes against Trump's 49.0%. There is no way of telling where fractions of a percentage will go.

The Scared

The second mental model draws its power from the mood inside my information bubble, which is dark. Most Never Trumpers and pundits foresee a Trump victory. But being worried is the default state of liberals, which allows me to...

The Confident

...find solace in the third one. God knows I need it. With this hat on, I predict Kamala a landslide victory. I base this on personal gut feeling and on the analysis of Peter Zeihan who agrees with my gut that Trump is a loser with a capital "L". After 2016 he managed to lose every single election where he chose to make himself the center of the vote. The 2018 midterms, the 2020 general election, the 2021 Georgia runoff elections, 2022 midterms. In 2020, he himself was ejected from office (making him the first one-term president of the last thirty years), and for the rest, the candidates he endorsed failed miserably.

He was never popular. He won 2016 with 45.9% of the popular vote (against Hillary's 48.0%) and his approval rating hovered consistently in the low 40s. The elections are decided by swing voters and a substantial proportion of them have developed a loathing of Trump as intense as his fans' devotion.

For the reasons above, until his disastrous debate performance, I was quite sure Biden would win, and even after that, I thought he had a nigh even chance. However, with Biden stepping down, the pent-up energies of democrat voters frustrated by their candidate's age blew up in an overwhelming surge of enthusiasm for Kamala. And in the last couple of months, she has done reasonably well. Her debate performance was spot-on (thanks to her preppers, who after 9 fucking years finally figured out how to talk to The Donald), and her interviews were good enough. Not good, mind you. But good enough. I believe that she is the dream candidate of few, but the preferred one of the tight majority in this binary race.

Trump on the other hand went to full idiot ("cat-eating Haitians") and full fascist (MSG-rally) mode, beyond anything we have seen before, and that's saying something. On the bright side, I don't think he has gained many new voters with that nor with his creepy shithead VP-elect Vance.

After November 5

Assuming that the last model proves to be the most accurate, what will happen after Trump loses?

I believe that bloodshed will happen. Trump and the imbecile half of the country won't accept the results. There will be instant lawsuits, as is normal, demands to stop the counting, as is moronic, and then a couple of other actions, which are criminal: Republican election officials sending in fake electors and/or refusing to certify the results, attacks on election officials, death threats to politicians, and mobs on the street. The constitutional crisis can last for weeks, giving constant opportunities for violence.

January 6 and the years since then normalized this behavior. Eighty-year-old taboos against political violence, Nazi slogans (and dinners guests and apologists) and even questioning democracy are broken. There is nothing hyperbolic or unhinged about the picture painted in the previous paragraph. Every single piece of it already happened four years ago. There are three crucial differences this time, however. 

One, the Trump voters have been fed with the Big Lie for four years now. They are angry, they are shameless, and they won't accept another defeat. 

Two, Trump has nothing to lose by attempting to grab power by violence and can't afford to lose anyway. If he fails to get back to the White House, he will spend his remaining days in courtrooms if he's lucky and behind bars if we are. 

Three, there is no one by his side who would even try to restrain him. His people are the ones who just held a 30s-style rally in Madison Square Garden.

This is gonna be very ugly.