Trump again?

This is not a post I really wanted to write. I'm really sick of American politics. But my last statement on the topic, that is, Trump had finally committed a successful political suicide attempt, has been proven wrong dramatically quickly. So honesty demands a follow-up which at least gives the opportunity to look at the bigger picture. Let's do it and get over it.

The election immediately refuted some of my theories. I thought Trump is already in his "fat Elvis-stage", where he has become more of an embarrassment for the Republican voters. He lost his novelty, he didn't reach out for new supporters, he had proven to be a complete failure in every respect. Every ethnic minority will come out against him. He will lose big time. He didn't. Actually, it was a very close election (thanks to the electoral system). 10 million more people voted for him in 2020 than in 2016. But, at least, at the end of the day, he lost.

After the election, to no one's surprise, Trump kept shouting lies and conspiracy theories about his "stolen victory". "Great, keep doing it", I thought. The louder he is, the smaller he grows, and the bigger the embarrassment he causes to the GOP. All is well-deserved. What I didn't - and neither many others - expect was that the GOP would enthusiastically go along with his lies. That was bad because the longer they stick with Trump, the longer it will take to finally get over him.

And then came January 6. It was a cathartic moment. I think if the Senate had voted on the impeachment trial that day, Trump would have been finished. Even the Trump-fans of the party shat themselves enough to immediately blame Trump and distance themselves from him. 

And then, the impossible happened. The GOP "civil war" between Trumpists and normals lasted about two weeks and ended with a whimper. The Republicans not only refused to convict Trump, but ran back to him as fast as they could. The ten Republicans who voted with the Democrats face censure, death threats, and ouster from office. State-level Republican Parties literally censure them for being "insufficiently loyal" to the former president. They make the Soviet Politburo of the 80s look like a group of free thinkers.

There is a reason why I said it was something impossible. In America, the world's oldest democracy, one of the main parties supports someone who openly tried to overthrow a democratic election, and having failed in that, he incited a mob to attack the nation's Capitol, which left 5 people dead. Ah, yes, and they also wanted to hang his vice-president. They not only support him, they practically worship him. The GOP is a party of traitors, and it's not hyperbole. It's a fact.

This is something about which if you weren't wrong, you just didn't pay attention. This might seem like a lame attempt to explain away how badly I read the situation, but I stand by it. 

So, will Trump be the Republican candidate in 2024? Let's sketch up the usual quick pro and con lists.

The GOP is in a very hard place now. I still think most of them would love to put Trump behind them. But there are two main reasons why they keep toadying to him. One is that none of them wants to face what Cheney, Kitzinger, Sasse, Cassidy, or the other dissenters are going through now. The other is that Trump holds them as hostages. If he created his own party, half of the voters might flock to him. (Yes, impeachment conviction would have solved your problems, coward idiots). Even if only 10% does, the GOP will never win an election again. Yet, January 6 left the stain of unacceptibility (for some, at least) on Trump. Even before that, he managed to be the first president in 30 years kicked out after one term, and the first in 100 years under whom the governing party lost the trifecta of the presidency, the Senate, and the House. He really doesn't look like anyone's idea of a winner. Yet, supporting him gives at least a chance for the GOP to win back the Senate in 2022 and the presidency in 2024.

And this is where the pro list ends. The con list has two items, one is Trump's looming legal battles, and the other is the other contenders.

Trump's legal challenges are numerous but fall into two broad categories. First of all, if McConnells dreams come true, the criminal system catches him for inciting the insurrection, or for trying to put pressure on officials to change the election result, or something like that. McConnell would love it, because then the system would do the dirty work of getting rid of Trump for him. Second, New York prosecutors finally got their hands on Trump's tax records. That could lead to some juicy stories, but unless he appears on the front pages lead away in handcuffs, none of them will shake his base.

About the other Republican presidential hopefuls, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley stand out. They would love to inherit Trump's voters, but until Trump is legally banned from running for the presidency, they have no chance. They are cowards, they are spineless, they are young, they might just wait for their turn in 2028.

So, the con list is not very strong either.

Well, that's it for now, I guess.