Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024? I wanted to write this post right after the Georgia runoffs (January 5) but procrastinated long enough, that is, 24 hours, for letting Trump render the question moot. Nevertheless, I think he already lost that chance on January 5, and what he did the next day will push the Republican Party further away from him - which is an undeserved present for them and a good thing for everyone.
The reasons are his complete failure in delivering victories, the stain of January 6, being the only president ever impeached twice, and being kicked out of Twitter.
Not that the GOP gave a damn about any of the last three items. It is beyond caring about principles, or just the illusion of the minimal standards of decency, or the president being an incompetent, corrupt, race-baiting moron. They don't even care that much about policies anymore. The single purpose of the Republican Party is to win elections. And the Great Negotiator has turned out to be pretty shitty at that.
In 2016, with the stars aligned, Trump finally won the presidency he has been attempting to run for since the beginning of the 2000s. And then it went all downhill. In 2018 he declared that the midterm elections are a referendum over him. The Republicans then duly lost the House. In 2020, the voters kicked out Trump himself, making him the first one-term president in 30 years. The fact that the GOP actually gained seats in the House made it clear that the GOP can still win elections, but Trump is a liability. Then he just couldn't bring himself to shut up and on January 5 he cost the Republicans the Senate as well. And that's when I think the romance ended for good.
Hawley and Cruz didn't lead the movement to challenge the election result because they love Trump so much, but because both of them wanted to be the 2024 nominee. Like the other Republicans who planned to vote with them and refused to vote for impeachment, they don't want Trump, they want his base.
And then, as the cherry on top, came the unique historical feats of being the only president ever impeached twice and having incited the mob to attack the Capitol of his own country. Social media platforms have taken away his megaphone, Amazon pulled the plug on Parlor. In the near future, without the impunity of his office, ugly things will just keep coming up around him.
I think even without these, 4 years of him not being the president would break the spell. Without his bully pulpit, he will stop being scary for Republicans, and instead, for all the reasons above, he will become more and more an embarassment. Even if Republicans refuse to convict him, and thereby banning him from holding public office again, Trump is done.
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