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Pranks, bubbles, disappointments

 

In 1996, Alan Sokal, a professor of mathematics and physics, submitted an article titled "Transgressing the Boundaries: Towards a Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity" to an academic journal of postmodernist cultural studies. It passed through peer reviews with flying colors and garnered praise across the targeted segment of academia. Shortly after, Sokal announced that it was a prank. Prompted by his annoyance with pseudo-intellectuals, he had packaged lengthy nonsense in obscure language and tested how well it would sell. It did sell well, not to the amusement of the duped parties, at least not after he exposed the trick. Astonishingly, some of them even doubled down. Instead of owning their embarrassment, they claimed that Sokal might have been insincere, but his article accidentally happens to be full of gems.

Twenty years later the philosopher Peter Boghosian, the mathematician James Lindsay, and Helen Pluckrose, an English literature scholar, pulled off the same trick. To expose poor scholarship of certain academic fields, they submitted a series of bogus papers to various journals. Their target this time was yet another subfield of postmodernism, the gender- and race-studies - "grievance-studies" as the trio puts it. They rewrote some parts of Mein Kampf, wrote an essay about how dog-parks facilitate rape-culture in society, another one about the benefits of anal sex toys for men in the fight against transphobia, and a series of others in a similar vein. Boghosian's "The Conceptual Penis as a Social Construct" probably crowns their efforts, but it's a tough race. Like Sokal, Boghosian and his partners in crime wanted to cast a spotlight on what they perceived as pseudo-intellectual bullshit masquerading as science.

The hoax was eventually exposed and it predictably ruffled the feathers of a great many people. It generated both furor and discussion about many topics around ethics, groupthink, cultural influence over academia, orthodoxies, etc.  Lindsay and Pluckrose recently wrote a book about the broader topic of their interest with the lengthy title of "Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Everything about Race, Gender, and Identity―and Why This Harms Everybody".

I listened to many interviews with the guys, and I like them a lot. This all happened in the past. Then a couple of days ago Lindsay' tweeted: "Frankly going to unhappily vote Republican, including Trump, until the left walks this shit all the way back." 

Well, that was a bombshell. I don't think Lindsay is a racist or misogynist or even the kind of guy who suffers Trump. But it is a colossal error in judgment, for two reasons. 

For one, Donald Trump dragged the presidency and public discourse in the gutters like no one ever has before, and by paralyzing America, it made the world a more volatile, dangerous, and cynical place. Yes, America never fully lived up to its ideals, but: 1. no country ever had 2. the world's hegemon at least had noble ideals. Good luck with the world that is governed by Chinese, Islamist, or Russian ones instead. The damage being caused by irritating poseurs, virtue-signaling craze, and victimhood culture on the Left is very bad and it does real harm to real people, but it still doesn't even come close. Your sense of proportion has to be so imbalanced to see that exactly the opposite way, that it's a miracle if you can even utter a straight sentence. Clumsy metaphor, never mind.

Nevertheless, Lindsay's opinion on the dangers of the two extremes is at least defendable. Maybe he is right and my sense of proportion is useless. But what is not defendable, in fact, almost inexplicable for a man of Lindsay's intellect, is that he thinks reelecting Trump would somehow help his cause. A ruling white-grievance party is not a bulwark against left-wing idiotism. It's the fuel of it. Lindsay seriously thinks that another four years of Trump wouldn't make Wokes even crazier?! It would make me crazier.

Luckily, his college, Helen Pluckrose, has not fallen in the same pit. She, without judging her acquaintances' decisions, encourages everyone to vote for Democrats. I wonder whether it has to do something with gender (that would be ironic for the trio). Women certainly seem to be less enamored by this faux-strongman-shtick.

Anyway, read what Jerry Coyne has to say about the matter.

The affair made me sad but also prompted me to contemplate bubbles. Lindsay lives in a bubble where he faces the absurdity of and harm caused by Wokeness every day. He probably also suffers attacks from them every day. And this apparently distorts his picture of the world to a dangerous extent. It is sad and disconcerting.

It's sad to realize that someone, whose opinion you have valued high so far, proved to be very fallible. It is also frightening, because if a smart guy like him can't see the forest from the trees, how do I know that it's not I who lives in a bubble? How do I know that Lindsay is not right, and a Trump presidency is, all things considered, still better than a Biden one? Or how do I know that Lindsay was right about Wokeness, to start with? It's both true and meaningless to say that everyone lives in a bubble. Obviously, everyone has preferred sources of information and a specific group of fellow humans he or she regularly interacts with.

I suppose the only remedy for close-mindedness is to follow the well-known and rarely practiced advice of staying out of your comfort zone. I suppose one can try to stay informed simultaneously inside multiple bubbles with little overlap or push the walls of her preferred bubble as far as she can. 

When Trump won in 2016, I started actively seeking out right-wing information sources. The farthest I had to stomach to go was National Review, and even that one I'm planning to ditch now (although, had they not gone all-in for the GOP by 2020, if not for Trump, I would stay). I never had it in me to watch Fox, let alone to read Breitbart. Gad Saad, Jordan Peterson, Niall Fergusson, Andrew Neil, Douglas Murray, Charles Murray, and few other people whose names I can't recall now, are whom I strongly disagree with at times, but I enjoy listening to. I can't listen to anyone who I can't enjoy. Probably that's the reason why I never sought left-wing sources of information. They are humorless. Hm...I just realized I have to correct myself here. I accidentally stumbled upon Slavoj Zizek, and he is quite funny, but I have no idea where he is on the political spectrum - even though he calls himself a communist. Anyway, this post has descended into a rumbling, it's time to stop.




The second debate

 I had been wrong, there was a second debate. I didn't want to watch it first, as I find watching or listening to Trump

cringeworthy, but eventually, I decided to do it. I wanted to see Biden one more time (for reassurance, like many others), and I also didn't want to form an opinion based on second-hand sources.

Trump surprised me and many others I guess. He has dialed down the volume to the minimum - to a Trump-minimum, at least. At times his tone was even bordering conciliatory. Some things didn't change, though. When confronted with facts - the Woodward-tapes, for example - he changed the subject immediately without any segue. He repeated the same lies and nonsenses, over and over again. Biden is corrupt, his family has taken money from everyone, Hunter's laptop, yada-yada, Biden has achieved nothing in 47 years, he himself is not a politician, but a savior of the forgotten people, he is treated so so badly by everyone.

Reading between the lines, one could discern the following. The "let's try the presidential dignity" -act is a clear indication that his "amazing" performance during the last debate was deemed as a catastrophe even by his own team. He wondered aloud how Biden could raise so much money - meaning his campaign is way behind and it hurts him and they hope some idiot voters will buy it that it's the result of Trump's self-restraint. He mentioned Hunter's laptop only passingly - so there is not even a grain of truth in the story. The rest was the usual hot air and brazen lying. 

Trump's straight-faced attempts to smear Biden with the shit he himself swims in - namely using his position to enrich himself and sucking up to dictators - would be a spectacle on its own right if it wasn't so boring. Many Trump-defenders take the view that he is a stand-up comedian. I agree. But he is shit at that.

As for Biden, no one will ever mistake him for a 40-year old, that's for sure. He sometimes visibly forgot the right word and had to rephrase the sentence, often slurred, and walked away at the end like, well, like a 76-year old man. But he had his moments. He got more relaxed by mid-time, even smiled, and joked with the moderator and his direct addresses to the public were done well. When he was talking about the healthcare-plan, his enthusiasm really shone through. And public speaking, especially if the stakes are this high, is stressful. It's easy to be an armchair-expert.

Still, his team didn't do a very good job at preparing him for Trump. The man is such a huge balloon of hot fart, a relaxed, witty debater could have poked fun at him with no end, and it wouldn't have taken him long to burst. Biden said "he likes thugs like the North-Korean leader" instead of making fun of the love letters and the "he really loves his people"-Trumpisms. When Trump bragged about that Kim Jong-un was willing to meet him, and not with Obama, Biden should have reminded him that it is supposed to be the American president who grants audience to a lowlife if he deserves, and not the other way around. Trump was boasting about his own humiliation and it was left unexploited. If only an Obama had been there...

At the end of the day, Trump kept repeating, like a broken record, how corrupt Biden is, and had nothing else to say. A laconic testament of the incompetence of the man and his team. Biden emphasized that this election is about the character, contrasting himself to Trump. It was a smart decision.

Will this debate sway the voters? Absolutely not.

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Anti-anti-Trumpers

Yesterday I listened to Coleman Hughes's interview with Niall Fergusson. Among other things, the discussion touched on America's handling of the pandemic. I had expected Fergusson to come up with his usual trope that how biased the mainstream opinion is for putting the blame fully on Trump, and he didn't fail to disappoint. He is probably right pointing to the mistakes and ineptitude of the CDC and the relevant institutions. Whatever the president of the United States' attitude is, a competent bureaucracy would have handled the crisis much better. However, he also made a passing remark of how the situation under Hillary Clinton would have probably not much different, apart from disinfectants and other antics of Trump. Had he not done that, his opinion could have been regarded as factually correct, even if one-sided. But Fergusson, in comparing Clinton to Trump, didn't see it important to mention that the current president has publicly and consistently belittled the crisis, disparaged scientific opinion, and personally attacked medical experts since the beginning of the pandemic. Almost everything can be explained away. But not this: Trump, after having admitted on tape that it's a deadly disease, has been, and still is, holding rallies where he encourages people the shout his name into each others' faces, and express their loyalty to him by not wearing masks. For the classical liberal Fergusson claims to be, it's a strange lack of reference to personal responsibility and individual agenda.

In concert, Hughes mentioned that the reason he hadn't voted for Trump in 2016 was that he had feared Trump would turn out to be a fascist. Seriously? The stretch of acceptability stops only at fascism? It's a shame because otherwise the wunderkind Hughes is a kind and brilliant person I like to listen to. And Fergusson is one of the most prominent historians of our time. I always (well, almost always) find his insights worthwhile, even if nowadays his deep and seducing voice and Scottish accent reminds me of an educated mob-boss who is telling you he is in a generous mood. 

So this whole affair leads me to a topic I've been planning to write about for a while. The people I despise most in the Trump-camp, the so-called anti-anti-Trumpers. As opposed to anti-Trumpers, it's a moniker some of its holders (Brett Easton Ellis, for example) explicitly like to attach to themselves. They are people who ostensibly dislike the president, but find that the "hysteria" around Trump deserves more criticism than Trump himself. Republican politicians have proved to be spineless cowards or worse, but at least they have the excuse of financial and professional risks that standing up to Trump would entail. But right-wing intellectuals, who are openly displeased with Trump and still make a living covering for the GOP and attacking Democrats, have no such excuse. Apart from friends not worth keeping, they had nothing to lose by choosing principle and not much to gain giving them up. There are plenty of other publications that would have employed them. David French and Jonah Goldberg bid farewell politely to the National Review, while Max Boots practically kicked over the table on his way out. They are the rare exceptions.

Let's see some examples for the rest.

When the NYT came out with the story of Trump's tax evasion, David Harsanyi of the National Review wrote an article titled "Avoiding taxes is patriotic". I shit you not. Harsanyi conveniently found his inside libertarian to argue that taxing by an incompetent government is practically stealing, so a real patriot should evade it out of principle. What about the police, the military, the judicial system, and similar trifles? I'm sure Harsanyi would have written the same in Biden's defense (out of principle, again), should Biden have turned out to be a lying cheating scum. I remember reading another article from Harsanyi, in which he thanked his parents for emigrating from communist Hungary and giving him an American life. There was really no need. Dictatorships have great use of people like him. He would have had a shining career in any one party-system in Hungary before 1989 or after 2010.

When America is in the twin grip of the biggest recession and deadliest pandemic since the Great Depression and the president both admits on tape the danger and publicly sabotages any solution, the National Review just finds out that 10 years ago Biden advised Obama against killing bin Laden. Surely, the story of the day.

Most recently, the NR expressed deep concerns that the Biden-presidency wouldn't be a trustworthy custodian of the Constitution. In the same week when Trump berated his Attorney General, Bill Barr, for not indicting Biden and Obama. Satire dies here.

I'll be charitable and assume that there are people here who are not merely shills for Trump, but kinda believe what they say they believe. And I see only two, probably overlapping, reasons to be in that position. One is running your confirmation biases on steroids in the past four years, then increase the dose in the last four months. The other is an addiction to the cheap sense of superiority coming from feeling intellectually sophisticated. Discovering subtlety in affairs dead obvious to anyone else with common sense. Playing the dispassionate, factual observer. These people, almost without an exception, found the realpolitiker in themselves. They measure the achievements of the Trump-administration (and obviously there are some) against the not-yet-manifested dangers of the coming Biden-presidency (there are some of that, too), and say "well, life is messy, politics is ugly, let's be serious here. This idiot is the price we have to pay for the sake of the country." So let's scratch the surface of the pile of shit they think the damage caused by a Democrat-presidency would dwarf.

  • the president withholding military aid from a country unless they help to get dirt on his political opponent
  • the president denying catastrophe-relief from California, because they don't support him
  • the president publicly telling a white supremacist group to stand by
  • the president personal lawyer, Rudy Guiliani, working with Russian agents and spreading Russian propaganda and misinformation
  • the president personal lawyer, campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, long-time business associate, and national security adviser arrested
  • the president publicly preferring Vladimir Putin's word over the report of his own intelligence services
  • the president publicly refusing to accept the result of the coming election unless he wins
  • the president calling California and New York, the biggest state and city he presides over, hellholes
  • the president publicly demanding that his Attorney General indict his political opponents
  • the president justifying abandoning the Kurds with "where were the Kurds when we needed them in Normany?"
  • the president retweeting accusations that Obama and Biden have had Seal team 6 killed and faked bin Laden's death
  • the president failing to reject the support of a group of lunatics who claim that Trump leads a secret war against Satan-worshipping, pedophile cabal of Democrats

Take only the last 3-4 points, and if we didn't live in the Trump-era, everyone would be sure that the president is sick. Not in the "despicable crazy bastard"-way. The "he is mentally ill, we need the vice-president to step-in now"-way. The mere need to belabor the point is mind-boggling.

And yet, the socialist danger to the American life is more worrying (not for 50 of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, who wrote an open letter to support Biden). As Tom Nichols, former Republican international affairs specialist, put it: it's like one is offered A and B menu on an airplane. A is a bowl of shit, B is chicken. And the man wants to know how the chicken is made.

To go back to Fergusson, and the type of people he represents: "I look at the masses beneath me, left and right, and I am disappointed." I am, too. I kinda liked the guy.


Stuart Stevens: It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump (2020)

For decades, Stuart Stevens had been considered as one of the best in the business. And his business was helping Republicans win elections. As a campaign strategist and media consultant, he worked on every political level from local elections to high-profile Republicans like Mitt Romney or George W. Bush. His break with the party came in 2016, and he became one of the first high-ranking GOP defectors. Today he is one of the members of the Lincoln Project and works with his life-long adversaries for a Biden-victory.

I felt instant sympathy for Stevens the minute I saw him in an interview. He is a Robert Redford-style archetypical American - athletic, handsome, plain-spoken, intelligent but pragmatic - who still possesses an almost cheerful, can-do attitude. And he also reminds me of Stan Beeman, one of the most likeable characters of one of the best TV-shows ever, The Americans. Plus, as a screenwriter, he penned some episodes for the Northern Exposure. And first and foremost, this is a redemption story. You really can't dislike the guy.

The aforementioned interview was about Steven's new book. In the last four years, I've read a couple of books on the American Right and Trump-phenomenon. Most of them were rewarding, but dense, packed with history and political philosophy (for laymen). For this reason, I wasn't very keen on reading yet another one, at least for a while. But after listening to a couple of subsequent interviews I gave in, and I didn't regret it. Steven's book is a refreshing one. There is a bit of soul-searching there, of course, but it's neither an explanation for the Trump-victory nor a history lesson on the conservative movement. It is short and straightforward - as a part-time writer of screenplays and travel books, Stevens knows how to engage the reader. Regarding the substance, in Stevens's words, the book is both a mea culpa and a j'Accuse.

Stevens starts it by admitting that he was naive, a sucker; he served the bad guys, and he is not looking for sympathy or absolution. He wrote the book in order to try to make sense of the world. 

Many pundits have tried to answer, or at least marveled at, the question of how Donald Trump could hijack the Republican Party in a matter of a short couple of years. Everything the GOP nominally had stood for - fiscal responsibility, character counts, family values, strong on Russia, pro legal immigration -, it not only has abandoned but downright turned against. How do people change deep-held beliefs overnight? "They don't", says Stevens, "They were never deep-held, to begin with". And this is his excuse and mea culpa: I did believe those people shared my convictions, and I'm a sucker to have done so. The party hasn't become Donald Trump, rather dropped the pretense of ever being different.

Stevens's choice of metaphor for the Republican Party's evolution is that of a fight of two genes. One was what he thought to be the recessive one. The racist, white supremacist line (currently in the process of further evolution to the white grievance party), tracing back to the anti-civil rights politicians. It was thought to have fizzled out decades ago. The other, which he considered as the dominant one, championed by politicians from Eisenhower to George W. Bush, was the one cherishing the virtues listed above. And Stuart admits he was just plain wrong. The roles were reversed.

The Republican party's support among black voters dropped from 40% (with Eisenhower) to 7% (with Goldwater) in 1964, and has never recovered since. As the GOP realized it has no way of winning back blacks, from the seventies it followed the so-called Southern strategy, which combined voter suppression, dog-whistling, and using the race card to divide and conquer Democrat voters. The inability of the party to attract black voters was written off as a communicational problem, rather than the result of blatantly anti-black policies. Simultaneously, the language Republican politicians used to keep white votes has become more abstract while preserving some substance of the original meaning. Open support for segregation has been replaced by the advocation of state-rights and tirades against the welfare state.

I think Stevens oversimplifies a complex problem. He doesn't even mention the fundamentalist Christian influence and the almost-religious gun-right activism, both are relatively new (dating from the 80s) phenomena. His characterization of the GOP also suffers from contradictions. He claims that the GOP is a racist party, but at the same time, he recalls earlier conversations with former and friends clients - when they still were willing to talk with him - in which they expressed their disgust and exasperation of Trump. They are more cowards than racists.

But maybe Steven's is not very wrong after all. If the GOP's policies are effectively racist - like non-white voter suppression -, or silently condone racism - by refusing to condemn it -, does it matter whether the main motivation of its members is conviction or convenience?

Even beyond the stain of racism, Stevens's portrayal of the Republican party is devastating. By its own standards the GOP is a failure. To keep Trump in power, Republicans now practically work with the Russians ("... the Russians, crying out loud!"). Regarding fiscal responsibility, their spiritual attachment to tax-cuts has consistently lead to higher deficits than under Democrat presidencies. The party of traditional family values has probably more gay members than the Democratic Party. Ivy League graduates are railing against the "elites" and claim to represent the common man, and kooky theories creep into the mainstream right-wing conversation. The preachers of integrity and strong character cannot stand up to...a tweet?

If the GOP has always been rotten, why did Stevens for decades not only put up with it but did everything to keep it in power? His excuse is short and blunt, and as good as one can expect from a man who took a radical turn in his sixties. "I was respected, I was successful. I had my own confirmation biases. Had I forced myself to face the contradictions, I would have had to go to war against my own interest. So I chose to look the other way."

The book doesn't offer solutions. Stevens thinks the GOP is irredeemable. The book was finished a year ago, and in recent interviews, Stevens said he apparently had been overly optimistic. The party has only accelerated its fall since then. And, as he sees the facts, race is not only the original sin of the GOP, but it is also the solution. More than 50% of the 15 year-olds in America are non-white. Chances are that in three years they still will be non-white. The party's only chance of survival was to open to the non-white population, and they chose the opposite path. They made a Faustian pact with Donald Trump. You sign the papers we put in front of you to advance our agenda, and in return, we protect you. And they forgot how these pacts with the Devil always work out. Not only does he take your soul, but he doesn't deliver.

The parting thoughts of the book are of a sad, angry, and, most of all, baffled man.

"I can't understand these folks. Don't they think about how they gonna be remembered? Not in 20 years, but in 2. I don't get it. I really don't."

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Trump contracted COVID-19

The virus cannot be conned.

Are we too jaded to be shocked by the news anymore? These last 2 weeks have been testing the idea. Ruth Bader Ginsburg's died and the ugly fight to fill her vacancy has just started. Then came the not-so-surprising revelations of Trump's tax record - it still would have sunk any other president. Then the horrific debate. Then the $4m sexual-harassment settlement of the barking-mad Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump's campaign finance chair and Donald Jr.'s girlfriend - this one is barely even worth mentioning, but it's too funny to leave out. Then Melania's f-word laden callous remarks about family separation - although Melania is too dull to even care about. And then, Trump contracted COVID-19.

To dispense with false pieties first, no one has had it coming more than Donald Trump. After ushering thousands into their deaths by willful negligence and total disregard for other humans' well-being (after Hope Hicks, with whom Trump was in close personal contact, was diagnosed with COVID, Trump held an indoor fundraiser), should he succumb to the virus, good riddance. It would be not merely Darwin Award-worthy, but a proof of cosmic justice.

Having said that, I hope he and the other morons recover quickly. He deserves to be defeated and humiliated in the election, then I wish all the best for the American justice system to determine his future afterwards. If he dies, it will be both a bang and a whimper at the end of these four years. Not only would Americans be robbed of the chance to pass judgment on his presidency, but I wouldn't be surprised if a sick martyr-cult emerged from this, with Donald Jr riding on its waves into 2024 (which in some other way could still happen at some point).

The only unambiguous blessing of this is that there will be no more debates.

The first Trump-Biden debate

Finally, I had a break to write something about it.

What a trainwreck... At half time I already decided not to watch the next debates. It was so terrible. My only consolation was, based on the press, that half the world felt the same.

Trump was, and I don't find any better word to describe him, aberrant. At this point, whether he is mentally ill or just a pathetic, repulsive moron is a distinction without a difference.

Chris Wallace, the moderator, has been heavily criticized for his performance, I think fully undeservedly. A debate requires that the contestants have at least a modicum of dignity and sense of fair play. The only way to rein Trump in would have been the threat of physical violence. Wallace did as well as anyone could have in his place.

Biden was neither sharp, nor particularly dull. It was a mediocre performance, and the viewers didn't get the chance to see how he would perform in a normal world. I personally expected more. Apart from his intensity, Trump said nothing surprising, nor did he act in any novel way. The topics were known to everyone before the event: economy, COVID, race, the family, etc. If I had been Biden's trainer, I would have had him memorize catchy soundbites dripping with mockery, ready to shoot from the hip. Something like "You want to talk about 'smart', Donald? You (in a voice mixing contempt and amusement)? The rich man's idiot son, who inherited hundreds of millions from daddy and squandered it all? You are a joke." Or "have you made up your mind about the pandemic yet? What's the best way to defeat it? Drinking disinfectants or shouting your name in each others' faces in one of your rallies? You know, on the ones where people actually turn up. Not the Tulsa one." Maybe not everyone would find it funny, but hey, I'm not a stand-up comedian. 

On Trump's performance, I almost agree with Jerry Coyne.

"There are those who will vote for Trump, and now I see nearly all of them as deplorables. I didn’t like Hillary Clinton using that word four years ago, but that was before we’d seen Trump’s performance as President. If you want him for another four years, then I think you’re either delusional or in love with tyrants (or both), and lack all political judgment."

Almost. Not everyone voting for Trump is deplorable. But who are not, they do lack all political judgment. That is, they don't deserve to be asked for their opinion. Ever.

Who won the debate? The consensus is that everyone lost. But I just can't believe anyone came away from it feeling a stronger commitment to Trump. His only, extremely narrow way to power may be to double-down and charge ahead. But on Tuesday I think it cost him voters.

Telling neo-fascists to "stand by"? Flat-out refusing to accept the election result beforehand? I just can't believe it's happening.