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What's wrong with Libertarianism

I have been thinking for a while about my issues with Libertarianism. For two reasons. One is that you should always challenge the beliefs you like. Two, libertarians are such a bunch of insufferably arrogant snobs, and one day I'd like to wipe the floor with one - at least in a verbal contest.

But the notion of fairness requires that before it comes to blows, the attacker should try and steelman his opponent's position. So in the following, I try to briefly summarize what I think Libertarianism is, and to put special emphasis on the ideas I like in it.

Libertarians' fundamental belief is that individual freedom should be regarded as the highest aspiration in society. Everyone should be free to do anything she likes as long as it doesn't harm others. "My freedom to swing my arm ends where the other fellow’s nose begins" - as the famous quote says. The government's sole purpose is to provide the conditions under which individual freedom can flourish. It should guarantee national security and ensure the rule of the law domestically, and with some exceptions (some libertarians are quite ok with seatbelts), that's all it should interfere with people's life. Taxation for any other purposes, like building an orphanage or funding basic research, is theft or plain extortion. Charity, like business, should be strictly voluntary.

This belief logically leads to the faith in free-market capitalism. Economy, just like any other public endeavor in society, should be organized bottom-up. Here I find the ideas and arguments of free-market advocates very persuasive. The theory behind why voluntary exchange between individuals leads to higher prosperity for the whole society than central planning is elegant, parsimonious, and powerful. It is also proven.

Let's demonstrate it with an example. If the French government tried to calculate how much a Parisian restaurant should ask for oysters, it would need to unpick a very intricated net of interactions. It would need to know how much oyster people generally wish to eat, how much oyster fishermen in Marseille can produce in a day - and their fellow fishermen elsewhere. How much compensation they deserve for the work. How much transporting the goods would cost (the best cost/benefit ratio among the alternative routes). How much is the demand in Paris for oysters and what is the fair price customers would be willing to pay for them. How much the cook would ask for preparing them.

With voluntary exchange, these calculations (and a myriad more with varying relevance, like what's producers of oyster-fishing equipment would want for their goods) happen between individuals, who know best how much value they put on their time and work.

The price of an oyster dish condenses a huge amount of information in a single number no one alone could come up with. And if the government forced the price to the half by decree, the ripple effects would wide and far-fetching and would affect more people than it could be foreseen. Most of the time, not for the better.

Accepting the supremacy of voluntary exchange, the impossible burden of knowing every detail and consequence of a financial action vanishes. And the free exchange-based system indeed rules supreme over any other economic alternative. Never before the modern times had humanity it as good as now in terms of GDP, nutrition, life-expectancy, or any other meaningful materialistic metric one can name. Capitalist countries are free and prosperous, while there is not a single self-proclaimed socialist state that didn't manage to make its people poorer and its prisons more crowded.

Libertarian thinkers, however, are rarely satisfied by stating their case not solely on economic terms. They claim that their way of doing things is not only economically more efficient than the alternatives, but it's also morally justified. Here they are not so different from socialists or even liberal democrats. Every camp believes that their political/economic ideas would yield the highest prosperity, and, conveniently, they are also morally superior.


So as far as I can see, Libertarians tend to state their case in four different ways.

1. Reaping the rewards of your work is just and it requires no further explanation.

2. (going from the other direction) although strict adherence to the first principle might be a justification for being selfish and greedy, but it's still immoral to forcefully disappropriate someone else's possession. 

3. Value is in the eyes of the beholder. No one has the right to impose her priorities on her fellow citizens.

4. Finally, life is terribly complicated. Solutions based on strictly voluntary bases might not always be the best, but it's practically impossible to build a framework of rules that would on average perform better. In the same vein, it's better to accept that the value of something is simply what people are willing to give for it than attempting to come up with some arbitrary and complicated way to measure it. It's not only futile, but it also leads to corruption and injustice.


So that is at least my interpretation of Libertarianism. My rebuttal below runs broadly along the following lines. For some problems, states sometimes have better solutions at their disposal than what free markets could provide. Ensuring that economic choices are really uncoerced sometimes requires more and not less state intervention. Libertarianism weakens social cohesion, which is in cases desirable and in others not. Finally, values are not entirely subjective, and they shouldn't be treated as such.

Let's start with a generic observation. I think every single libertarian argument above stands well on its own. Some are very convincing, but all of them are at least defendable. My problem is with the almost religious fervor Libertarians cling to them. Principles in life always have a sphere of validity. Take them too far, and they will either collide with the extreme end of another dear principle or will just lose power. Don't kill is a good guideline in life until you see a serial killer with a blood-stained axe in his hand coming at your kids and you have only one bullet left in the chamber. Being compassionate and always telling the truth are also mutually exclusive in certain situations.

Libertarians sometimes seem to think that the world is a just bunch of nails and they have found the perfect hammer  - even if it's admittedly an unfair comparison. Free-markets are such a powerful and versatile invention that they reject physical parallels. But they are not a panacea. An apter analogy could be found in engineering. Software engineers know that decentralization is a powerful technique for building simple, robust, and efficient systems. But they also know that there are no silver bullets in engineering. Sometimes centralized control is the best option. If no single approach can solve every problem in engineering, it's unlikely that one such exists in a world much more messy and complex, that is, economics.

In turning from the abstract to the concrete, I can think of at least three areas where free markets don't perform very well.

The first is that seemingly voluntary life-choices are not really voluntary. The libertarian argument for the legalization of prostitution is that as it happens between consenting adults, it's no one else's business. But neat ideology is a thin veneer on the grim reality: the large majority of prostitutes are drug-addicts. Women are often forced into selling their bodies and are abused by their pimps. Arguments for and against polygamy follow the same lines. Fundamentalist Mormon women can claim that they are happy in a polygamous relationship, but in those communities, underage girls forced to marry men 50 years their senior. It's not their free choice, and they are brainwashed into it from childhood and punished severely if they try to dissent.

The second area is the problems for which individual actions just don't provide adequate solutions. Sometimes the sum of the parts is less than the whole. Recycling your waste will make you feel better about yourself and will do nothing to solve the problem of climate change. To stop lethal viruses, a large majority of the population needs to be vaccinated. If the government refuses or unable to enforce that, the fate of the whole society stays in the hands of a small group of delusional anti-vaxxers. Another example is banning cigarettes from public places. On their own, few smokers would have followed guidelines, but even the majority of smokers are now happy to be able to spend a night in a bar without stinking the next day. The same can be said about enforcing helmets in professional cycling or ice-hockey. A hockey player would not have worn a helmet when others don't because it constraints her vision and she would have had to trade efficiency for safety. But being mandatory, it poses no disadvantage to anyone and provides higher safety for everyone.

The third area is where places where the financial incentives of individual actions are missing. Funding basic research in, let's say mathematics, is not a rational business decision anyone would make if those researches are expected to bring results in a hundred years. 

The element of libertarian ideology I take issue with the most is the definition of value. Libertarians say, if you produce movies for which people are willing to pay to see, you have exactly the same moral right to enjoy your wealth as if you had amassed it by producing medicaments for disabled children. The majority has no right to impose their system of values on individuals. After all, who has the right to claim to be the judge of other people's preferences, and second, value systems change over time. What once was regarded as the deepest depravity, like homosexuality or atheism, is today considered perfectly normal. 

And, in general, they have a point. Who is there to say how much a painting should cost? What is worth more, a computer or a motorbike? Caring for the elderly or nursing children? But even though I agree with the idea in general, I don't believe that values are purely subjective. And neither really do those who say so. Let's take the dilemma raised by Breaking Bad. If people are willing to pay much more for producers of crystal-meth than for chemistry teachers, does it mean the former deserve more? It's futile to try to align moral and material worth. But it doesn't mean they are truly independent and every attempt to reconcile them deserves scorn.

Finally, libertarianism weakens cohesion in society. This is sometimes a good thing, the world would have preferred a bit less unity in the Third Reich. But oftentimes it's not. Public and mandatory schooling, universal health care, national television, and the like do forge national unity, and the only thing that makes that hard to see is that we take them for granted. I once heard the famous American libertarian, John Stossel arguing for a privatized postal service. Stossel cited the massive losses the national postal service suffers every year, and argued, very sensibly, that private companies would do the job much better. I'm sure it's true. But they surely wouldn't be universal. Scarcely populated, remote places with old and possibly lonely people would unlikely be covered by them. I accept that there are some ideological hermits who would find infuriating that they can't get away from the overbearing state, but their well-being concerns me less than those who would rightly feel just left out in the cold by the nation. I'm not saying that receiving letters from the state would fill the gap of loneliness in people's hearts. But I think the idea that there is a community that regards you as a member comforts more people than how many it incenses. Also, what would a libertarian utopia do if its less enlightened neighbor decided to invade it? The "every man for himself" approach would bring a quick end to the glorious experiment.

In the end, although I don't want to live in a country ruled by libertarians, I want to hear their voice in opposition. Libertarianism is the best antidote against theocracy, an ossified class-system, or socialist enthusiasm in government. They have a lot to say both in the area of morality and economics. But unlike moderate liberals or conservatives, they think what they have to say is all that's out there.

It's over

That was a very long three days. After the high hopes nurtured for months, Wednesday was a bucket of cold water. Not only did the prospect of landslide victory vanish, but the slowly creeping realization set in that Trump could pull it off again. After a long night of the soul (I heard this phrase in a podcast and really like it), Thursday morning some glimmers of hope started appearing, and it had gradually grown until Friday. It was a nail-biter for two days. Since then, it's pure elation. It's good that I never wanted to be a poet.

The first thing on everyone's mind: how could the polls be so wrong again? Were they wrong? I think this is one of those "on one hand, on the other hand" topics (Truman famously asked to be sent a one-armed economist). So, on one hand, they were very wrong. They predicted a clear and decisive victory for Biden. Instead, Biden won the states he desperately needed by the skin of his teeth. He won Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin with less than 1% of the votes. Georgia, still hanging, with a tenth of a percent. This race was very, very tight, and the result could have easily gone the other way.

On the other hand, Biden won with a historical margin of more than 4 million votes. With more votes in total than any presidential candidate ever received. In America, that would be considered a landslide if not for the States' vestigial electoral system. He even flipped some states.

On the third hand, the Democrats probably won't control the Senate and even lost seats in the House. This was clearly not the repudiation of Trumpism we hoped for. It erased the hope of a soul-searching and cleansing process in the GOP, sadly.

Speaking of Trumpism, what does this result say of the American people? In 2016, low-information voters at least had the excuse (a ridiculous one, though) that they are, well, low-informed. But after 4 years of Trump, half the country still wants more of this?! This topic merits a post for itself.

Trump, of course, to the surprise of no one, continues being Trump. He is so embarrassing that even his hard-core lackeys are eager to distance themselves from his lunatic claims. Two very funny months are ahead of us. For the first time in four years, I regret that Twitter blocks Trump's most unhinged posts. Watching the public meltdown of this smalltime, cruel, vile, and pathetic wreck is just sweet. It almost makes up for the past four years.

Beyond that is anyone's guess. Trump may try to run in 2024 again. If his preternatural stamina (his only positive trait) lasts that long. He'd be 78 then. Or the GOP may decide that although the messenger was a pain in the neck, the message sold well. It may be worth trying with a younger, less erratic vehicle of Trumpism. There are so many moving parts. Trump's behavior in the next two and a half months. The possible criminal prosecutions after. The ambitions of his family. Biden's effort to reach out to the moderate Republicans (which is what I fervently hope he'll do).

As for Biden, I think he deserves some words of praise here. Instead of the doddering old geezer he seemed to be at times, he has proven to be the right man for the right time. He is decades past his prime, he is a gaffe-machine, he already failed twice in his presidential bids. But he is the antithesis of Trump. He is a decent and emphatic man, generally liked by everyone. He is a unifier and a consensus-seeker. He is who had the best chance of defeating Donald Trump and he is what America needs today. 

The opinion pieces about the still enduring problems and new mistakes, and "COVID and racism and inequality are still not over..." will start appearing soon. But now, just sit down, get a beer, turn on some right-wing media outlet, and enjoy the show.


When the race is over(?)

 The election season is about to cross the finish line, after what seemed to be ten years since spring. 

Although everyone who is rooting for Biden suffers from 2016's PTSD and Trump-supporters are eager to find hope anywhere, for someone following the polls only, this race has been a very boring and predictable one. Barring some bombshell revelation about Biden (and it's already too late for that), the end has never been in question for months. The only remaining unknown is the size of the victory. The really interesting and unpredictable part is just about to start.

If Biden wins, and there is almost no way he won't, Trump will claim that the election was rigged. The smaller the gap between him and Biden, the louder he will be. His followers will stage protests and he will encourage them. Furthermore, this will be a prolonged process. People will vote personally on November 3, but counting the mail-in-ballots can take days or even weeks. Republicans are more likely to vote in person, and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to vote early. If Trump has more votes on the evening of the election but the mail-in-ballots chip his advantage away day-by-day, he will tell his followers that the election is being stolen in front of their eyes. This will be a powder keg. But he will do it anyway, regardless of whether Biden is ahead from the beginning or not.

That's not news. The interesting new brain-teaser for political geeks is to try and predict how the GOP will react to its unhinged leader, who won't be the leader for long. On one hand, I suppose their enthusiasm to side with Trump will be inversely proportional to the size of defeat, too. On the other hand, that is where I expect high-profile Republicans to break ranks. Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, or Mike Pence don't like Trump. If anything, they despise him, and certainly don't want to go to prison with him (maybe Bill Barr wants, I don't know). I've read that Biden already reached out to moderate Republicans with cabinet position offers, which is exactly what he needs to do and the country needs badly. 

As a side-note, I'm astonished by how professionally the Democrats have led their campaign from the beginning. They had the discipline of playing it low-profile during the first wave of the pandemic. They kept Biden out of Trump's way of self-immolation and ran a campaign on the promise of uniting the country instead of falling prey to their own extremists. As opposed to the Trump-campaign, which was led by the idiot son-in-law and a bunch of monkeys who wouldn't make it to team B in any other political campaign. They have burnt an incredible amount of money for nothing and let their boss wasting time on holding politically harmful rallies as personal therapy sessions. Trump is partying like it's 2016, raging about Hillary's emails and Obama's spying on his campaign. Who the fuck cares about Hillary's emails in 2020? In the end, Donald Trump will go down in history, not as the raw political genius he is purported to be, but as a one-trick pony.

I digress, but I couldn't resist.

So I expect the Republican elders to distance themself from Trump, albeit silently. I hope they are every bit of the cynical, spineless, power-hungry people they have shown themselves to be. Because if they are, they will act solely out of self-interest and try to wash the stain off or keep silent until it fades. The situation is worse if they retained a shred of dignity because in that case they might cling to Trumpism instead of admitting their complete moral and political failure. Plus, they have also proved that they are not terrific long-term strategists.

There are several factors to complicate the picture even further. The most important of them may be that, unlike in 2016, Trump has reasons to be terrified of losing. Once the office of the presidency no longer protects him, he might need to face charges of tax evasion, obstruction of justice, and whatever additional misdeeds from the last five decades the prosecutors will uncover. Even during his presidency, half a dozen of his close associates were led away in handcuffs. The institutions worked. All this beside the fact that he might even be financially broken. So he will fight to the bitter end. And even if top-level Republicans are happy to throw him to the wolves, he has an almost inerodable base of supporters and even some low-level GOP lunatics who truly love him (in a Platonic way, most probably).

Then there is the Supreme Court. Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett have made some worrying noises lately. One would think that having reached the highest office they ever dreamed of, they will act with restraint and consideration, but what if they won't? The Trump team will immediately issue a series of legal challenges (which is almost the norm by an American election) and some of them might end up at the Supreme Court.

Then the Anti-anti Trumpers. There are mistakes made at every election. We can count on the National Review to find every single one of them that worked to Biden's advantage and, at most, passingly remark upon the others that favor Trump. By the way, the best comparison to Anti-anti-Trumpers just dawned upon me. They are like the tobacco industry. They only asked questions. They just pointed to scientific mistakes. They even set up their own research. These right-wing party soldiers will point out when the mainstream media doesn't pursue a story aggressively enough. They will report on any trace of Wokeness around Biden. On every gaffe. Everything is factual. We are just impassionate observers. But I digress again.

Then there are the Trump family's future plans. I'm sure Don Jr would love to capitalize on daddy's success in 2024. No one can tell how that will play out with the GOP leadership.

Then finally, the clay-footed giant, the voters. Will Trump-voters gradually lose interest in him after his presidential days are counted? I think that's inevitable, and the better question is where their energies will be channeled into.

The months until January will be tumultuous. The banging of the war drums won't stop. Will the game of "I was only there to control his worse instincts" start right after the elections? Will Trump be a lonesome madman till January, raging on Twitter, ignored by everyone? (Or will the GOP stick with him and go fully down the path of becoming the white grievance party of the future?) Will Trump have any incentive to do something in the next 2 months? Or just trying to save his hide? Or screwing up things just out of spite? 

Things are going to get interesting after November 3.


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Pranks, bubbles, disappointments

 

In 1996, Alan Sokal, a professor of mathematics and physics, submitted an article titled "Transgressing the Boundaries: Towards a Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity" to an academic journal of postmodernist cultural studies. It passed through peer reviews with flying colors and garnered praise across the targeted segment of academia. Shortly after, Sokal announced that it was a prank. Prompted by his annoyance with pseudo-intellectuals, he had packaged lengthy nonsense in obscure language and tested how well it would sell. It did sell well, not to the amusement of the duped parties, at least not after he exposed the trick. Astonishingly, some of them even doubled down. Instead of owning their embarrassment, they claimed that Sokal might have been insincere, but his article accidentally happens to be full of gems.

Twenty years later the philosopher Peter Boghosian, the mathematician James Lindsay, and Helen Pluckrose, an English literature scholar, pulled off the same trick. To expose poor scholarship of certain academic fields, they submitted a series of bogus papers to various journals. Their target this time was yet another subfield of postmodernism, the gender- and race-studies - "grievance-studies" as the trio puts it. They rewrote some parts of Mein Kampf, wrote an essay about how dog-parks facilitate rape-culture in society, another one about the benefits of anal sex toys for men in the fight against transphobia, and a series of others in a similar vein. Boghosian's "The Conceptual Penis as a Social Construct" probably crowns their efforts, but it's a tough race. Like Sokal, Boghosian and his partners in crime wanted to cast a spotlight on what they perceived as pseudo-intellectual bullshit masquerading as science.

The hoax was eventually exposed and it predictably ruffled the feathers of a great many people. It generated both furor and discussion about many topics around ethics, groupthink, cultural influence over academia, orthodoxies, etc.  Lindsay and Pluckrose recently wrote a book about the broader topic of their interest with the lengthy title of "Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Everything about Race, Gender, and Identity―and Why This Harms Everybody".

I listened to many interviews with the guys, and I like them a lot. This all happened in the past. Then a couple of days ago Lindsay' tweeted: "Frankly going to unhappily vote Republican, including Trump, until the left walks this shit all the way back." 

Well, that was a bombshell. I don't think Lindsay is a racist or misogynist or even the kind of guy who suffers Trump. But it is a colossal error in judgment, for two reasons. 

For one, Donald Trump dragged the presidency and public discourse in the gutters like no one ever has before, and by paralyzing America, it made the world a more volatile, dangerous, and cynical place. Yes, America never fully lived up to its ideals, but: 1. no country ever had 2. the world's hegemon at least had noble ideals. Good luck with the world that is governed by Chinese, Islamist, or Russian ones instead. The damage being caused by irritating poseurs, virtue-signaling craze, and victimhood culture on the Left is very bad and it does real harm to real people, but it still doesn't even come close. Your sense of proportion has to be so imbalanced to see that exactly the opposite way, that it's a miracle if you can even utter a straight sentence. Clumsy metaphor, never mind.

Nevertheless, Lindsay's opinion on the dangers of the two extremes is at least defendable. Maybe he is right and my sense of proportion is useless. But what is not defendable, in fact, almost inexplicable for a man of Lindsay's intellect, is that he thinks reelecting Trump would somehow help his cause. A ruling white-grievance party is not a bulwark against left-wing idiotism. It's the fuel of it. Lindsay seriously thinks that another four years of Trump wouldn't make Wokes even crazier?! It would make me crazier.

Luckily, his college, Helen Pluckrose, has not fallen in the same pit. She, without judging her acquaintances' decisions, encourages everyone to vote for Democrats. I wonder whether it has to do something with gender (that would be ironic for the trio). Women certainly seem to be less enamored by this faux-strongman-shtick.

Anyway, read what Jerry Coyne has to say about the matter.

The affair made me sad but also prompted me to contemplate bubbles. Lindsay lives in a bubble where he faces the absurdity of and harm caused by Wokeness every day. He probably also suffers attacks from them every day. And this apparently distorts his picture of the world to a dangerous extent. It is sad and disconcerting.

It's sad to realize that someone, whose opinion you have valued high so far, proved to be very fallible. It is also frightening, because if a smart guy like him can't see the forest from the trees, how do I know that it's not I who lives in a bubble? How do I know that Lindsay is not right, and a Trump presidency is, all things considered, still better than a Biden one? Or how do I know that Lindsay was right about Wokeness, to start with? It's both true and meaningless to say that everyone lives in a bubble. Obviously, everyone has preferred sources of information and a specific group of fellow humans he or she regularly interacts with.

I suppose the only remedy for close-mindedness is to follow the well-known and rarely practiced advice of staying out of your comfort zone. I suppose one can try to stay informed simultaneously inside multiple bubbles with little overlap or push the walls of her preferred bubble as far as she can. 

When Trump won in 2016, I started actively seeking out right-wing information sources. The farthest I had to stomach to go was National Review, and even that one I'm planning to ditch now (although, had they not gone all-in for the GOP by 2020, if not for Trump, I would stay). I never had it in me to watch Fox, let alone to read Breitbart. Gad Saad, Jordan Peterson, Niall Fergusson, Andrew Neil, Douglas Murray, Charles Murray, and few other people whose names I can't recall now, are whom I strongly disagree with at times, but I enjoy listening to. I can't listen to anyone who I can't enjoy. Probably that's the reason why I never sought left-wing sources of information. They are humorless. Hm...I just realized I have to correct myself here. I accidentally stumbled upon Slavoj Zizek, and he is quite funny, but I have no idea where he is on the political spectrum - even though he calls himself a communist. Anyway, this post has descended into a rumbling, it's time to stop.




The second debate

 I had been wrong, there was a second debate. I didn't want to watch it first, as I find watching or listening to Trump

cringeworthy, but eventually, I decided to do it. I wanted to see Biden one more time (for reassurance, like many others), and I also didn't want to form an opinion based on second-hand sources.

Trump surprised me and many others I guess. He has dialed down the volume to the minimum - to a Trump-minimum, at least. At times his tone was even bordering conciliatory. Some things didn't change, though. When confronted with facts - the Woodward-tapes, for example - he changed the subject immediately without any segue. He repeated the same lies and nonsenses, over and over again. Biden is corrupt, his family has taken money from everyone, Hunter's laptop, yada-yada, Biden has achieved nothing in 47 years, he himself is not a politician, but a savior of the forgotten people, he is treated so so badly by everyone.

Reading between the lines, one could discern the following. The "let's try the presidential dignity" -act is a clear indication that his "amazing" performance during the last debate was deemed as a catastrophe even by his own team. He wondered aloud how Biden could raise so much money - meaning his campaign is way behind and it hurts him and they hope some idiot voters will buy it that it's the result of Trump's self-restraint. He mentioned Hunter's laptop only passingly - so there is not even a grain of truth in the story. The rest was the usual hot air and brazen lying. 

Trump's straight-faced attempts to smear Biden with the shit he himself swims in - namely using his position to enrich himself and sucking up to dictators - would be a spectacle on its own right if it wasn't so boring. Many Trump-defenders take the view that he is a stand-up comedian. I agree. But he is shit at that.

As for Biden, no one will ever mistake him for a 40-year old, that's for sure. He sometimes visibly forgot the right word and had to rephrase the sentence, often slurred, and walked away at the end like, well, like a 76-year old man. But he had his moments. He got more relaxed by mid-time, even smiled, and joked with the moderator and his direct addresses to the public were done well. When he was talking about the healthcare-plan, his enthusiasm really shone through. And public speaking, especially if the stakes are this high, is stressful. It's easy to be an armchair-expert.

Still, his team didn't do a very good job at preparing him for Trump. The man is such a huge balloon of hot fart, a relaxed, witty debater could have poked fun at him with no end, and it wouldn't have taken him long to burst. Biden said "he likes thugs like the North-Korean leader" instead of making fun of the love letters and the "he really loves his people"-Trumpisms. When Trump bragged about that Kim Jong-un was willing to meet him, and not with Obama, Biden should have reminded him that it is supposed to be the American president who grants audience to a lowlife if he deserves, and not the other way around. Trump was boasting about his own humiliation and it was left unexploited. If only an Obama had been there...

At the end of the day, Trump kept repeating, like a broken record, how corrupt Biden is, and had nothing else to say. A laconic testament of the incompetence of the man and his team. Biden emphasized that this election is about the character, contrasting himself to Trump. It was a smart decision.

Will this debate sway the voters? Absolutely not.

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Anti-anti-Trumpers

Yesterday I listened to Coleman Hughes's interview with Niall Fergusson. Among other things, the discussion touched on America's handling of the pandemic. I had expected Fergusson to come up with his usual trope that how biased the mainstream opinion is for putting the blame fully on Trump, and he didn't fail to disappoint. He is probably right pointing to the mistakes and ineptitude of the CDC and the relevant institutions. Whatever the president of the United States' attitude is, a competent bureaucracy would have handled the crisis much better. However, he also made a passing remark of how the situation under Hillary Clinton would have probably not much different, apart from disinfectants and other antics of Trump. Had he not done that, his opinion could have been regarded as factually correct, even if one-sided. But Fergusson, in comparing Clinton to Trump, didn't see it important to mention that the current president has publicly and consistently belittled the crisis, disparaged scientific opinion, and personally attacked medical experts since the beginning of the pandemic. Almost everything can be explained away. But not this: Trump, after having admitted on tape that it's a deadly disease, has been, and still is, holding rallies where he encourages people the shout his name into each others' faces, and express their loyalty to him by not wearing masks. For the classical liberal Fergusson claims to be, it's a strange lack of reference to personal responsibility and individual agenda.

In concert, Hughes mentioned that the reason he hadn't voted for Trump in 2016 was that he had feared Trump would turn out to be a fascist. Seriously? The stretch of acceptability stops only at fascism? It's a shame because otherwise the wunderkind Hughes is a kind and brilliant person I like to listen to. And Fergusson is one of the most prominent historians of our time. I always (well, almost always) find his insights worthwhile, even if nowadays his deep and seducing voice and Scottish accent reminds me of an educated mob-boss who is telling you he is in a generous mood. 

So this whole affair leads me to a topic I've been planning to write about for a while. The people I despise most in the Trump-camp, the so-called anti-anti-Trumpers. As opposed to anti-Trumpers, it's a moniker some of its holders (Brett Easton Ellis, for example) explicitly like to attach to themselves. They are people who ostensibly dislike the president, but find that the "hysteria" around Trump deserves more criticism than Trump himself. Republican politicians have proved to be spineless cowards or worse, but at least they have the excuse of financial and professional risks that standing up to Trump would entail. But right-wing intellectuals, who are openly displeased with Trump and still make a living covering for the GOP and attacking Democrats, have no such excuse. Apart from friends not worth keeping, they had nothing to lose by choosing principle and not much to gain giving them up. There are plenty of other publications that would have employed them. David French and Jonah Goldberg bid farewell politely to the National Review, while Max Boots practically kicked over the table on his way out. They are the rare exceptions.

Let's see some examples for the rest.

When the NYT came out with the story of Trump's tax evasion, David Harsanyi of the National Review wrote an article titled "Avoiding taxes is patriotic". I shit you not. Harsanyi conveniently found his inside libertarian to argue that taxing by an incompetent government is practically stealing, so a real patriot should evade it out of principle. What about the police, the military, the judicial system, and similar trifles? I'm sure Harsanyi would have written the same in Biden's defense (out of principle, again), should Biden have turned out to be a lying cheating scum. I remember reading another article from Harsanyi, in which he thanked his parents for emigrating from communist Hungary and giving him an American life. There was really no need. Dictatorships have great use of people like him. He would have had a shining career in any one party-system in Hungary before 1989 or after 2010.

When America is in the twin grip of the biggest recession and deadliest pandemic since the Great Depression and the president both admits on tape the danger and publicly sabotages any solution, the National Review just finds out that 10 years ago Biden advised Obama against killing bin Laden. Surely, the story of the day.

Most recently, the NR expressed deep concerns that the Biden-presidency wouldn't be a trustworthy custodian of the Constitution. In the same week when Trump berated his Attorney General, Bill Barr, for not indicting Biden and Obama. Satire dies here.

I'll be charitable and assume that there are people here who are not merely shills for Trump, but kinda believe what they say they believe. And I see only two, probably overlapping, reasons to be in that position. One is running your confirmation biases on steroids in the past four years, then increase the dose in the last four months. The other is an addiction to the cheap sense of superiority coming from feeling intellectually sophisticated. Discovering subtlety in affairs dead obvious to anyone else with common sense. Playing the dispassionate, factual observer. These people, almost without an exception, found the realpolitiker in themselves. They measure the achievements of the Trump-administration (and obviously there are some) against the not-yet-manifested dangers of the coming Biden-presidency (there are some of that, too), and say "well, life is messy, politics is ugly, let's be serious here. This idiot is the price we have to pay for the sake of the country." So let's scratch the surface of the pile of shit they think the damage caused by a Democrat-presidency would dwarf.

  • the president withholding military aid from a country unless they help to get dirt on his political opponent
  • the president denying catastrophe-relief from California, because they don't support him
  • the president publicly telling a white supremacist group to stand by
  • the president personal lawyer, Rudy Guiliani, working with Russian agents and spreading Russian propaganda and misinformation
  • the president personal lawyer, campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, long-time business associate, and national security adviser arrested
  • the president publicly preferring Vladimir Putin's word over the report of his own intelligence services
  • the president publicly refusing to accept the result of the coming election unless he wins
  • the president calling California and New York, the biggest state and city he presides over, hellholes
  • the president publicly demanding that his Attorney General indict his political opponents
  • the president justifying abandoning the Kurds with "where were the Kurds when we needed them in Normany?"
  • the president retweeting accusations that Obama and Biden have had Seal team 6 killed and faked bin Laden's death
  • the president failing to reject the support of a group of lunatics who claim that Trump leads a secret war against Satan-worshipping, pedophile cabal of Democrats

Take only the last 3-4 points, and if we didn't live in the Trump-era, everyone would be sure that the president is sick. Not in the "despicable crazy bastard"-way. The "he is mentally ill, we need the vice-president to step-in now"-way. The mere need to belabor the point is mind-boggling.

And yet, the socialist danger to the American life is more worrying (not for 50 of the nation’s most senior Republican national security officials, who wrote an open letter to support Biden). As Tom Nichols, former Republican international affairs specialist, put it: it's like one is offered A and B menu on an airplane. A is a bowl of shit, B is chicken. And the man wants to know how the chicken is made.

To go back to Fergusson, and the type of people he represents: "I look at the masses beneath me, left and right, and I am disappointed." I am, too. I kinda liked the guy.


Stuart Stevens: It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump (2020)

For decades, Stuart Stevens had been considered as one of the best in the business. And his business was helping Republicans win elections. As a campaign strategist and media consultant, he worked on every political level from local elections to high-profile Republicans like Mitt Romney or George W. Bush. His break with the party came in 2016, and he became one of the first high-ranking GOP defectors. Today he is one of the members of the Lincoln Project and works with his life-long adversaries for a Biden-victory.

I felt instant sympathy for Stevens the minute I saw him in an interview. He is a Robert Redford-style archetypical American - athletic, handsome, plain-spoken, intelligent but pragmatic - who still possesses an almost cheerful, can-do attitude. And he also reminds me of Stan Beeman, one of the most likeable characters of one of the best TV-shows ever, The Americans. Plus, as a screenwriter, he penned some episodes for the Northern Exposure. And first and foremost, this is a redemption story. You really can't dislike the guy.

The aforementioned interview was about Steven's new book. In the last four years, I've read a couple of books on the American Right and Trump-phenomenon. Most of them were rewarding, but dense, packed with history and political philosophy (for laymen). For this reason, I wasn't very keen on reading yet another one, at least for a while. But after listening to a couple of subsequent interviews I gave in, and I didn't regret it. Steven's book is a refreshing one. There is a bit of soul-searching there, of course, but it's neither an explanation for the Trump-victory nor a history lesson on the conservative movement. It is short and straightforward - as a part-time writer of screenplays and travel books, Stevens knows how to engage the reader. Regarding the substance, in Stevens's words, the book is both a mea culpa and a j'Accuse.

Stevens starts it by admitting that he was naive, a sucker; he served the bad guys, and he is not looking for sympathy or absolution. He wrote the book in order to try to make sense of the world. 

Many pundits have tried to answer, or at least marveled at, the question of how Donald Trump could hijack the Republican Party in a matter of a short couple of years. Everything the GOP nominally had stood for - fiscal responsibility, character counts, family values, strong on Russia, pro legal immigration -, it not only has abandoned but downright turned against. How do people change deep-held beliefs overnight? "They don't", says Stevens, "They were never deep-held, to begin with". And this is his excuse and mea culpa: I did believe those people shared my convictions, and I'm a sucker to have done so. The party hasn't become Donald Trump, rather dropped the pretense of ever being different.

Stevens's choice of metaphor for the Republican Party's evolution is that of a fight of two genes. One was what he thought to be the recessive one. The racist, white supremacist line (currently in the process of further evolution to the white grievance party), tracing back to the anti-civil rights politicians. It was thought to have fizzled out decades ago. The other, which he considered as the dominant one, championed by politicians from Eisenhower to George W. Bush, was the one cherishing the virtues listed above. And Stuart admits he was just plain wrong. The roles were reversed.

The Republican party's support among black voters dropped from 40% (with Eisenhower) to 7% (with Goldwater) in 1964, and has never recovered since. As the GOP realized it has no way of winning back blacks, from the seventies it followed the so-called Southern strategy, which combined voter suppression, dog-whistling, and using the race card to divide and conquer Democrat voters. The inability of the party to attract black voters was written off as a communicational problem, rather than the result of blatantly anti-black policies. Simultaneously, the language Republican politicians used to keep white votes has become more abstract while preserving some substance of the original meaning. Open support for segregation has been replaced by the advocation of state-rights and tirades against the welfare state.

I think Stevens oversimplifies a complex problem. He doesn't even mention the fundamentalist Christian influence and the almost-religious gun-right activism, both are relatively new (dating from the 80s) phenomena. His characterization of the GOP also suffers from contradictions. He claims that the GOP is a racist party, but at the same time, he recalls earlier conversations with former and friends clients - when they still were willing to talk with him - in which they expressed their disgust and exasperation of Trump. They are more cowards than racists.

But maybe Steven's is not very wrong after all. If the GOP's policies are effectively racist - like non-white voter suppression -, or silently condone racism - by refusing to condemn it -, does it matter whether the main motivation of its members is conviction or convenience?

Even beyond the stain of racism, Stevens's portrayal of the Republican party is devastating. By its own standards the GOP is a failure. To keep Trump in power, Republicans now practically work with the Russians ("... the Russians, crying out loud!"). Regarding fiscal responsibility, their spiritual attachment to tax-cuts has consistently lead to higher deficits than under Democrat presidencies. The party of traditional family values has probably more gay members than the Democratic Party. Ivy League graduates are railing against the "elites" and claim to represent the common man, and kooky theories creep into the mainstream right-wing conversation. The preachers of integrity and strong character cannot stand up to...a tweet?

If the GOP has always been rotten, why did Stevens for decades not only put up with it but did everything to keep it in power? His excuse is short and blunt, and as good as one can expect from a man who took a radical turn in his sixties. "I was respected, I was successful. I had my own confirmation biases. Had I forced myself to face the contradictions, I would have had to go to war against my own interest. So I chose to look the other way."

The book doesn't offer solutions. Stevens thinks the GOP is irredeemable. The book was finished a year ago, and in recent interviews, Stevens said he apparently had been overly optimistic. The party has only accelerated its fall since then. And, as he sees the facts, race is not only the original sin of the GOP, but it is also the solution. More than 50% of the 15 year-olds in America are non-white. Chances are that in three years they still will be non-white. The party's only chance of survival was to open to the non-white population, and they chose the opposite path. They made a Faustian pact with Donald Trump. You sign the papers we put in front of you to advance our agenda, and in return, we protect you. And they forgot how these pacts with the Devil always work out. Not only does he take your soul, but he doesn't deliver.

The parting thoughts of the book are of a sad, angry, and, most of all, baffled man.

"I can't understand these folks. Don't they think about how they gonna be remembered? Not in 20 years, but in 2. I don't get it. I really don't."