What is going to happen with the GOP after Trump?

Will things ever be normal again?

What is going to happen to the GOP after November? Assuming Donald Trump is beaten decisively and apart from his usual outbursts of self-pity and incoherent ramblings he duly leaves the White House, it is definitely going to be a hard reckoning. But not an unexpected one. 4 months before the election, his polling numbers are so low that a humiliating defeat is the most likely outcome, which gives the Republican party members enough time to start seriously thinking about the exit strategy. United as they were in their submission to Trump, I expect some libertarian creativity in the ways of distancing themselves from the past 4 years. As much solidarity the GOP has shown toward its dissenting members, if I were one of them, I'd rather opt for "every man for himself" philosophy.

Let's try to guess what the most commonly chosen strategies will be.

First, there are the consummate politicians, aka weathervanes, who discover their principles by putting their fingers in the wind. The likes of Lindsey Graham or Mitch McConnell have been the most enthusiastic and self-abasing Trump lackeys. Their defense will be that they heroically defended the system from the inside by neutralizing the worst instincts of the president. Rude interviewers could and will cause them some embarrassing minutes by asking impolite questions about the impeachment or the 2016 nomination process, but these fellas are not known for their fragility and tender hearts. They will unquestionably tout the achievements of the administration, downplay the problems, and, if cornered, explain at length what disasters they personally helped to avoid.

This course of defense is only available to those on the top, who were close to the man. Lacking these more imaginative options, but at least having kept themselves outside of the limelight, most of the GOP will suddenly try to sell themselves as the I-don't-care-about-big-politics-I-just-get-the-job-done types. The middle-brow politicians, the pragmatists, the philosophically uninterested. There are some genuine ones, and there are some of them who actually get things done without offering articulate opinions on a daily basis. As for the rest, with the reliable assistance of the short memory of the electorate, most of them will succeed. In 4 years Trump will be just a bad memory, and someone must run the country.

And then there will be those who dig in. Trump had issues, but it was still better than the Left would have been! The cancel culture rage and the statue-breaking mob will give them the fuel to revive the myth of the Flight 93 election and keep wailing constantly about the persecution of Christians, the destruction of the American culture, the coming abortus-wave, and other overblown or purely imaginary disasters. The line will be blurry between this group...

...and the die-hard Trump-fans! They don't simply think all in all it was better than the left, but it was better than any other option because Trump was the great guy! The politicians who choose to go this way will ride the frantic support of the moral and intellectual sewers. QAnon, Charlie Kirk, OANN, Parler, white supremacists. When the president of the US publicly muses whether Ted Cruz's father killed Kennedy and tweets about how a talk show host killed his employee, every conspiracy-theorist nutjob and two-bit moron feels vindicated. The "elite" have suppressed us for so long, but now we've shown we have a voice, and we won't ever let them take it away again!

And finally, the few good men. The 43 Alumni, the Lincoln-project, the Never Trumpers, George Will, Max Boots, Charles Sykes, David Frum, Bill Kristol, to name a few. The ones that gave in their party cards the moment Trump secured the 2016 nomination, and the very few ones who had the balls to publicly challenge the president from inside the party. They can walk out of the woods with heads held high. There are some, like Mitt Romney, who resisted only half-heartedly, and some plain opportunists who jumped ship when deemed the old one sinking, or cleverly hedged their bets, but the few bad apples don't matter. This group proves that there are conservatives who hold principle over power.

Since in real life nothing is clear cut, most people if not all will be some mixture of these above. I think situational factors will weigh in the individual decisions at least as much character and convictions. If I were a Republican politician with flexible principles and little guts to stand up even for them, as I think most GOP members are, I would take my most important cues from the outcome of the election, the future prospects of Donald Trump, the current hyper-liberal hysteria, the character of the Biden presidency, white Evangelicals, and the fledging Nazi-crackpot bromance. I'm not sure about the order of importance here.

The more trashing the defeat will be, the greater the desire will be to wash off the stain of Trump, as at least to some degree, denouncing the past will be simply a matter of self-interest. If the GOP is beaten only marginally, the future looks very bad.

Donald Trump's influence on the future of the party is a very good question, and it depends almost entirely on what will happen to him after 2020. Will he have legal troubles? Will he try to build a media empire on his base (which seems to be 30-40% of the electorate)? Will he continue tweeting and growing ever smaller and - deprived of the office - ever more insignificant? Well, this is not much of a question. Tweeting he won't stop, that's for sure.

The Biden presidency's first and maybe biggest test will be its attitude towards woke insanity and cancel culture. If Biden manages to stand up to them firmly and decisively, he can gain the support of a vast swath of centrist Republican voters and principled liberals. If he bows, he will give the GOP a chance to pose as the steward of civilization and the American way. Please, Joe, don't screw it up!

White Evangelicals are unfortunately a force to reckon with. It's unlikely that they will confess their sin of selling out their values for the most unchristian president ever, and practice penance. After all, that's for the others. With marginal exceptions, they will dig-in and get ever more convinced that the end-time is near. Someone who shares their beliefs or is sufficiently cynical can build a strong platform on them.

Those who are even more crackpot or cynical can try to do the same with white supremacists and the believers in the conspiracies of the satanic-pedophile elite (I'm not joking. Just google QAnon). I don't think they will get very far but being visible is bad enough. Donald Trump did a lot of awful things. But forging an electoral force from plain idiocy and racist hatred will be his ugliest legacy.

This post could go on almost indefinitely, diverging into many directions and diverging further down. At one point I'd like to summarize what I think about why the GOP let itself hijacked by a malignant dilettante, why so few Republican chose principles over collaboration, what does it say about America, what could unite the nation again (the answer is China), what does liberalism mean, American exceptionalism, human irrationality, the power of feelings over reason, and so on and on... another time.

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John Bolton: The Room Where It Happened (2020)

Is Donald Trump an "America First" president? Not nearly enough, according to his former National Security Advisor. Of all the books on Trump and his presidency, none had elicited so much expectation from the public, so much rage from the White House, and so much animosity against its author as John Bolton's.

In a certain respect, the White House's brouhaha around the book seems overblown. Bolton reveals that Trump is narcissistic, erratic, inconsistent, ignorant, he couldn't distinguish between his self-interest and that of America (which is a very charitable way of saying that he prioritizes his well being to America's), and he makes up stories frequently (which again is a charitable expression for lying). In short, the book tells nothing an average citizen doesn't know already for years. If the baseline is what Trump appears to be based on his tweets, interviews, and public appearances, then Bolton's picture - admitting that Trump is occasionally capable of asking good questions, his instincts are not always far off the mark, or he had to put up with active opposition from his own people - is even a small net positive.

On the other hand, this might be what makes the book so frightening for the Trump-campaign. Bolton doesn't portray a caricature, but a fundamentally and irrevocably incompetent man for the job. This, combined with Bolton's unquestionably stellar conservative credentials - the man has been the darling of hawkish Right-wing media for decades -, and being literally "in the room where it happened" amounts to a devastating testimony that's very hard to challenge. The sheer amount of detail and the no-nonsense tone proves that people's shared instincts about Trump are moored in reality. It will be interesting to see how Republicans react when asked about the book, and very probably the standard weaseling out will be "I haven't read it".

Those who bought the book for juicy stories about Trump are up for a disappointment. Bolton is simply uninterested in the ugliness of Trump's character, his obstruction of justice, the naked nepotism, the flirting with the far-right, and the rest of the garbage defining the man. He went to the White House to achieve a very clear set of goals - getting out of the Iran deal and the INF treaty, increase pressure on North Korea, Iran and China, and a couple of others we'll get into later - and Trump was only one of the obstacles he faced there. Although the one he eventually failed to overcome.

Bolton also stands far apart from most critics of the president inasmuch as he himself is the poster boy of the America First philosophy. He despises international institutions, like the EU or the UN, uninterested in nation-building, advocates regime changes in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and possibly China, and fundamentally sees the world as a dangerous place where projecting American power is indispensable for peace and prosperity. For the world and, more importantly, for the USA. Being so forthcoming with his views is refreshing, as it unburdens the skeptical reader of the need of being constantly on the lookout for signs of hypocrisy and naked self-interest. Bolton wears his convictions like a badge of honor.

He isn't out to get friends either. Bolton has always been famous for his abrasive and uncompromising style, but there is still something fascinating about his indifference to the social havoc he's wrought on his own head. He clearly revels in insults. He has been always hated by the liberals, and the book won't change that. But now he'll be hated by the Republicans, too. Those on the Right who oppose Trump will never forget his refusal to testify in the impeachment trial (for which his excuses are simply pathetic).

In return, few people appearing on the pages escape his criticism. The media is shallow and antagonistic. The Europeans are nervous, ineffectual, hopelessly bureaucratic, and prefer high-minded speeches to facing the dangers of the world - which they happy to leave it to America. Macron, "the French", is a pompous weasel. The US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, is shallow and opportunistic. Pompeo is competent but bends to Trump's will too easily. Mnuchin, the Secretary of Treasury, is nervous and dithering. Tillerson was clueless. Obama's name is never mentioned unconnected to some colossal failure. But first and foremost, Bolton never misses an opportunity to kick into Mattis, whom he portrays as a bureaucrat constantly trying to frustrate others' efforts to get things done, for reasons he is unwilling or unable to explain. This goes beyond fair criticism and feels more like personal enmity. The only character of importance in the book Bolton spares from scorn is John Kelly, Trump's second Chief of Staff. Recalling their conversations are the only places where some human sentiment sneaks into the book.

Bolton's critical tone stops abruptly at himself. He is always sure that he is right, to the extent that the book could have been appropriately titled to "The World according to John Bolton". He is not interested in why and how other people see things. Neither in the case of Trump nor in any other. Bolton just records their statements or perceived views as facts and moves on. This might be the biggest flaw of the book, but quite understandable as a necessary mindset for human bulldozer like him.

Having done with the author's views and style, it's time to look at the book itself. Bolton is a famous note-taker with a lawyer's attention to detail. The book reads like a very thick pad of notes describing 500 days turned into a memoir. Which it exactly is, and which is really not a complaint, as the events it covers are thrilling, and Bolton's point of view is that of the man who actually sat at the proverbial smoke-filled rooms and was an active influencer on how those events turned out. The reader is treated with a thorough account of how major crises and negotiations during the Trump presidency were handled.

The first day Bolton started his position as the National Security Adviser the retaliation against Syria's chemical weapon attack was on the table. Then followed Bolton's pet projects, getting out of the Iran deal and the INF treaty. Then negotiations with North-Korea, that spanned over the length of the book. Withdrawal from Syria. Haggling with Erdogan. The very nearly successful regime change in Venezuela. Iran's attacks on American drones and ships. And the one that weighed heavily on almost everything else, the trade war with China. Finally, the infamous Ukraine call. We get a glimpse of early morning calls, turf fights between departments, heated debates in the White House, negotiations with foreign leaders, and all the nitty-gritty details of the chaotic and unpredictable world of international politics.

The elephant, of course, is always in the room, not because Bolton enjoys talking about Trump that much, but simply on the merit of being the president, thus being uncircumventable. Bolton's frustration with Trump is palpable, but at least it gives him an opportunity to show his hitherto unknown humorous side. Trump riffing on his favorite topics like a broken record or his occasional bizarre utterances, in Bolton's dispassionate style, are quite entertaining, and at least one event sounds like a passage straight from Catch 22.

The unsentimental tone and very stark views require some detachment from the reader who doesn't share Bolton's, but for anyone who is interested in how the sausage is made, the book is a treasure trove. Getting anything done in the White House turns out to be a complicated and messy business (even without the multiplicator effect of the current inhabitant), where the cabinet has to fight with lawyers, the Treasury, the State Department, and the Pentagon as much as with America's foreign enemies.

But Bolton's reason for writing the book was, of course, not to give the public more insight into the White House machinery but to show why Trump should not be re-elected. With the skin of a rhinoceros and an obsessive focus on foreign policy, Bolton couldn't care less for Trump's character flaws or legal shenanigans - although at one point he succinctly captures what characterizes an average Trump statement: partial truth mixed with malice and misinformation. The only question interesting to him is: does Trump serve American interests? And his resounding answer is: No.

Bolton's observations are not completely new, much less surprising, but there is a novelty in his narrow focus on Trump's effectiveness as a leader. According to him, Trump has no ideology, or a coherent worldview, or any kind of compass to follow. He approaches every incident transactionally, and it's left for his stuff to piece the puzzles together. He can't distinguish between his personal relationships with foreign leaders and the relationship between America and the countries they lead - an ability that Putin or Xi possess easily.

He also genuinely believes his own propaganda of being the master deal-maker, and that that's the reason why everyone - meaning Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, the Iranians, Putin, the Taliban - wants to talk directly with him instead of with any other US official. The common-sense explanation, that people want to negotiate with the one they can get the most concessions from, has never occurred to him. He is so eager to present those deals to the media, that he is not much interested in their substance. In almost any negotiation process with adversarial leaders, his advisors are mostly occupied with preventing him from giving away hard-won US positions.

As someone, who in some sense embodies the "America First" philosophy that happens to be Trump's purported agenda (even if not his isolationist instincts), Bolton is uniquely fit for the job for dismantling the myth Trump has built around himself. You don't have to like him (he doesn't go out of his way to achieve that) or share his views to concede that the book makes a strong case against the re-election of Trump. Especially for ideological Republicans who sofar deemed Trump the lesser evil or worked under the delusion that he is not that bad, after all. His is not that bad, says Bolton. He is worse.

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